-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       log:  C:\Work\Research\Alliance\instit\LeedsAnacIIrep.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 opened on:  23 Apr 2005, 16:19:13

. do "C:\DOCUME~1\leeds\LOCALS~1\Temp\STD00000000.tmp"

. **Results reported in Table 4 and 5
. logit honor3 milinst formal chcap2d dinstch2 origtar1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -86.00129
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -59.341059
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -57.446856
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -57.345066
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -57.344577

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =        137
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      57.31
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -57.344577                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3332

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.7091947    .297693    -2.38   0.017    -1.292662   -.1257271
      formal |  -.9287062   .3586226    -2.59   0.010    -1.631594   -.2258189
     chcap2d |  -1.546641    .516243    -3.00   0.003    -2.558458    -.534823
    dinstch2 |  -1.460391   .6040667    -2.42   0.016     -2.64434   -.2764421
    origtar1 |   -1.35927   .4804949    -2.83   0.005    -2.301023   -.4175172
       _cons |   3.690691   .6390482     5.78   0.000      2.43818    4.943202
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. **actual vs. predicted values
. predict prhona
(option p assumed; Pr(honor3))

. gen prhonad=0

. recode prhonad 0=1 if prhona>.5
(prhonad: 102 changes made)

. tab honor3 prhonad

           |        prhonad
    honor3 |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |        27         17 |        44 
         1 |         8         85 |        93 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |        35        102 |       137 


. 
. **substantive effects with clarify
. estsimp logit honor3 milinst formal chcap2d dinstch2 origtar1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -86.00129
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -59.341059
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -57.446856
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -57.345066
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -57.344577

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =        137
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      57.31
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -57.344577                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3332

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.7091947    .297693    -2.38   0.017    -1.292662   -.1257271
      formal |  -.9287062   .3586226    -2.59   0.010    -1.631594   -.2258189
     chcap2d |  -1.546641    .516243    -3.00   0.003    -2.558458    -.534823
    dinstch2 |  -1.460391   .6040667    -2.42   0.016     -2.64434   -.2764421
    origtar1 |   -1.35927   .4804949    -2.83   0.005    -2.301023   -.4175172
       _cons |   3.690691   .6390482     5.78   0.000      2.43818    4.943202
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....

Note: Clarify is expanding your dataset from 137 observations to 1000
observations in order to accommodate the simulations.  This will append
missing values to the bottom of your original dataset.

% of simulations completed: 16% 33% 50% 66% 83% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6

. setx mean

. simqi, fd(pr) changex(milinst min max)

First Difference: milinst min max

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
           dPr(honor3 = 0) |   .2964347     .1237722     .0491914    .5370355
           dPr(honor3 = 1) |  -.2964347     .1237722    -.5370355   -.0491914

. simqi, fd(pr) changex(formal min max)

First Difference: formal min max

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
           dPr(honor3 = 0) |   .3686633     .1333827      .095666    .6248387
           dPr(honor3 = 1) |  -.3686633     .1333827    -.6248387    -.095666

. simqi, fd(pr) changex(chcap2d min max)

First Difference: chcap2d min max

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
           dPr(honor3 = 0) |   .3027785     .0928348     .1225974     .491961
           dPr(honor3 = 1) |  -.3027785     .0928347     -.491961   -.1225974

. simqi, fd(pr) changex(dinstch2 min max)

First Difference: dinstch2 min max

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
           dPr(honor3 = 0) |   .3109752      .138823     .0478304    .5598191
           dPr(honor3 = 1) |  -.3109752      .138823    -.5598191   -.0478304

. simqi, fd(pr) changex(origtar1 min max)

First Difference: origtar1 min max

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
           dPr(honor3 = 0) |    .273968     .1001153     .0669657    .4698879
           dPr(honor3 = 1) |   -.273968     .1001153    -.4698879   -.0669657

. drop b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6

. 
. *Fnote 12 (Recode those alliances in which some members honor and some violat
> e in other ways)
. logit honor2 milinst formal chcap2d dinstch2 origtar1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -84.436958
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -55.857248
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -53.348424
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -53.1539
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -53.15189
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -53.151889

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =        137
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      62.57
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -53.151889                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3705

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.7022619   .3082862    -2.28   0.023    -1.306492   -.0980319
      formal |  -1.204887   .3865659    -3.12   0.002    -1.962543   -.4472323
     chcap2d |  -1.770585   .5551053    -3.19   0.001    -2.858571   -.6825984
    dinstch2 |  -1.237632   .6222081    -1.99   0.047    -2.457138   -.0181264
    origtar1 |   -1.60985   .5033275    -3.20   0.001    -2.596354   -.6233464
       _cons |   4.234753   .7243448     5.85   0.000     2.815063    5.654443
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Fnote 14 (Aggregate capabilities)
. logit honor3 milinst formal chalcapd dinstch2 origtar1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -86.00129
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -61.994671
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -60.773588
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -60.736092
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -60.736037

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =        137
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      50.53
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -60.736037                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2938

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.7060209   .2883831    -2.45   0.014    -1.271241   -.1408004
      formal |  -.7505409   .3334569    -2.25   0.024    -1.404104   -.0969774
    chalcapd |   -.824057    .484811    -1.70   0.089    -1.774269    .1261551
    dinstch2 |  -1.700167   .5691579    -2.99   0.003    -2.815696   -.5846379
    origtar1 |  -1.330592   .4617779    -2.88   0.004     -2.23566   -.4255242
       _cons |   3.173742   .5603446     5.66   0.000     2.075487    4.271997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Fnote 15 (20% threshold on capability change)
. logit honor3 milinst formal chcp2d20 dinstch2 origtar1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -86.00129
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -61.433098
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -60.188689
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -60.15107
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -60.151015

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =        137
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      51.70
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -60.151015                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3006

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.5703734   .2852188    -2.00   0.046    -1.129392   -.0113549
      formal |  -.8456887   .3445896    -2.45   0.014    -1.521072   -.1703056
    chcp2d20 |  -1.023179   .5026497    -2.04   0.042    -2.008354   -.0380035
    dinstch2 |  -1.528794   .6014214    -2.54   0.011    -2.707559   -.3500301
    origtar1 |  -1.323219   .4651177    -2.84   0.004    -2.234833   -.4116054
       _cons |   3.114583   .5291979     5.89   0.000     2.077374    4.151792
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Fnote 16 (Regime change)
. tab regch2 honor3

     (max) |        honor3
    regch2 |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |        39         91 |       130 
         1 |         5          2 |         7 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |        44         93 |       137 


. 
. *Fnote 20 (Non-wartime only)
. logit honor3 milinst formal chcap2d dinstch2 origtar1 if wartime==0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -70.152198
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -48.699894
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -47.026601
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -46.920977
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -46.920274

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =        104
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      46.46
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -46.920274                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3312

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.9187194   .3398771    -2.70   0.007    -1.584866   -.2525725
      formal |    -.91183    .397743    -2.29   0.022    -1.691392   -.1322681
     chcap2d |   -1.38809   .5978797    -2.32   0.020    -2.559913   -.2162677
    dinstch2 |   -1.48065   .6226868    -2.38   0.017    -2.701094   -.2602065
    origtar1 |  -1.406596   .5354562    -2.63   0.009    -2.456071   -.3571214
       _cons |   3.652575   .7883217     4.63   0.000     2.107492    5.197657
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Fnote 20 (Active assistance only)
. logit honor3 milinst formal chcap2d dinstch2 origtar1 if active==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -62.900154
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -41.204109
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -39.274221
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -39.132137
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -39.130866
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -39.130865

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =         93
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      47.54
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -39.130865                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3779

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.5425234   .3896287    -1.39   0.164    -1.306182    .2211349
      formal |   -1.16083   .4698127    -2.47   0.013    -2.081646   -.2400144
     chcap2d |  -1.841157   .6601931    -2.79   0.005    -3.135112   -.5472027
    dinstch2 |  -1.802302   .7823301    -2.30   0.021     -3.33564    -.268963
    origtar1 |  -.7229352   .5745044    -1.26   0.208    -1.848943    .4030728
       _cons |   3.430078   .7437922     4.61   0.000     1.972272    4.887884
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Fnote 20 (Control for bilateral/multilateral)
. logit honor3 milinst formal chcap2d dinstch2 origtar1 bilat

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -86.00129
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -58.149836
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -55.99425
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -55.850897
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -55.849851

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =        137
                                                  LR chi2(6)      =      60.30
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -55.849851                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3506

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      honor3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     milinst |  -.6374455   .2998679    -2.13   0.034    -1.225176   -.0497153
      formal |    -.95144   .3747814    -2.54   0.011    -1.685998    -.216882
     chcap2d |  -1.719895   .5411685    -3.18   0.001    -2.780565   -.6592241
    dinstch2 |   -1.25041   .6252663    -2.00   0.046     -2.47591   -.0249106
    origtar1 |  -1.299267   .4899013    -2.65   0.008    -2.259456   -.3390779
       bilat |   1.097646   .6386395     1.72   0.086     -.154064    2.349357
       _cons |   2.794471   .7809903     3.58   0.000     1.263758    4.325184
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
end of do-file

. log close
       log:  C:\Work\Research\Alliance\instit\LeedsAnacIIrep.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 closed on:  23 Apr 2005, 16:20:50
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
